Energy expenditure measured under sedentary conditions predicts weight change but evidence that directly measured VO₂max is associated with weight change is lacking. The aim of this study was to determine the associations of VO₂max with measures of predominantly sedentary 24-h thermogenesis, and subsequent weight change.

Three hundred fifty-seven individuals (162 females; 27 Blacks, 72 Caucasians, and 258 American Indians) had measures of body composition, resting metabolic rate (RMR), and intermittent treadmill run test for assessment of VO₂max. On a separate day, 24-h energy expenditure (EE), diet-induced thermogenesis (DIT) expressed as “awake and fed” thermogenesis (AFT), sleeping metabolic rate (SMR), and spontaneous physical activity (SPA) were measured in a whole-room indirect calorimeter. Follow-up weight for 217 individuals was available (median follow-up time, 9.5 y; mean weight change, 12.4 ± 14.9 kg).

After adjustment for fat free mass, fat mass, age, sex, and race, a higher VO₂max was associated with a higher RMR (β = 68.2 kcal/day per L/min, P < 0.01) and 24-h EE (β = 62.2 kcal/day per L/min, P < 0.05) and including additional adjustment for energy intake higher AFT (β = 66.1 kcal/day per L/min, P = 0.01). Neither SMR (P > 0.2) nor SPA (P > 0.8) were associated with VO₂max. VO₂max at baseline did not predict follow-up weight after adjustment for baseline weight, follow-up time, sex, and race (P > 0.4).

VO₂max is associated with measures of EE including 24-h EE, RMR and DIT implying a common mechanism regulating the energetics of skeletal muscle during exercise and thermogenesis. However, this did not translate to VO₂max as a predictor of weight change.